The BTC Report

September 26, 2025

Fundamental Analysis

Bitcoin's long-term fundamental outlook remains strong, largely driven by its scarcity and increasing institutional acceptance. As a decentralized asset with a capped supply of 21 million coins, its scarcity is a key value driver, reinforced by the recent halving event in April 2024. Growing institutional demand via spot Bitcoin ETFs and the potential for a U.S. strategic Bitcoin reserve are massive tailwinds.

The immediate outlook is influenced by macroeconomic data, particularly U.S. inflation figures (like the PCE data due today) and the Federal Reserve's stance on interest rates. Positive economic data could support a "risk-on" sentiment, which typically favors Bitcoin, while hawkish Fed remarks can increase caution. On-chain data suggesting long-term holders are accumulating and exchange outflows (especially for Ethereum) point to a continued conviction in the long-term bullish case for the asset.

Technical Analysis

Bitcoin is currently trading under technical pressure, recently dropping below key support levels.

• Short-Term: Bitcoin has broken the floor of a short-term rising trend channel, indicating a weaker initial rising rate. Immediate support is around $107,700, with resistance at $117,600.

• Medium-Term: The currency remains in a rising trend channel over the medium to long term, suggesting overall positive development. A definitive break of the $106,000 support or the $117,000 resistance will determine the next direction. There's a developing head and shoulders formation that, if confirmed by a break below ≈$109,859, could signal a further fall.

• Long-Term: The long-term trend remains positive within a rising channel, with major resistance at $123,000 and strong support at $106,000.

Big News

• Futures Expiry and Market Caution: A large futures expiry (worth ≈$22.6 billion) added to market pressure, contributing to range-bound trading as investors remain cautious and divided.

• ETF Outflows: US Bitcoin spot ETFs recorded significant net outflows of over $258 million on September 25, suggesting a period of investor fatigue or profit-taking following recent market moves.

• Coinbase CEO's Bullish Call: Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong predicted that Bitcoin could reach $1,000,000 by 2030, citing regulatory clarity (including bipartisan efforts in the U.S.) and massive institutional demand via ETFs as the main drivers.

• Macro Headwinds: Bitcoin has been reacting to macroeconomic cues, including the risk of a potential U.S. government shutdown and anticipation of the PCE data release, which is a key measure for the Federal Reserve's policy decisions.

Expert Recommendations and Forecast

Unlike traditional companies, Bitcoin has no "earnings date." The most significant scheduled events affecting its supply and price are:

• Bitcoin Halving: This event, which cuts the reward for mining new blocks in half, occurs approximately every four years. The last halving was in April 2024, and the next is projected for mid-2028.

• Key Macroeconomic Data: Bitcoin's price is often driven by major releases of U.S. economic data, such as GDP, inflation (PCE/CPI), and Fed announcements, as these influence risk appetite. The Core PCE data is a crucial factor to watch today.

Earnings and Outlook

Expert sentiment is broadly positive for the medium to long term, though short-term technical caution is advised.