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Fundamental Analysis

Aurora Cannabis (ACB) is trading significantly below some estimations of its fair value. The company has demonstrated strong historical earnings growth, having grown earnings by approximately 59.2% per year over the past five years, with future earnings forecast to grow at an even higher rate of over 121% per year. The company's focus on a "medical-first" strategy, strong financial flexibility, and regulatory expertise are key assets. However, profitability remains a challenge, as indicated by negative earnings per share (EPS) and negative return on equity. Increased competition and scalability challenges threaten operating margins, and the company has reported a recent quarterly loss per share that missed estimates, leading to negative market sentiment. Strong revenue growth, particularly in the medical cannabis sector, is a positive sign of market penetration and expansion capabilities.

Technical Analysis

The stock is currently trading within an approximate horizontal trend channel, indicating investor uncertainty and a potential wait for a clearer signal on future direction. It's moving within a rectangle formation with support around the $4.98 level and resistance around $5.77. A decisive break above or below these levels will likely set the next trend. From a moving average perspective, the stock is trading above both its 50-day and 200-day simple moving averages, which generally suggests a bullish trend over the short to medium term. However, some technical indicators, including the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) and the 14-day Relative Strength Index (RSI), have recently signaled a "Strong Sell" or "Sell," indicating potential downward pressure or a lack of strong momentum in the immediate term.

Big News

• Q1 Fiscal 2026 Earnings Miss: Aurora Cannabis reported its fiscal first-quarter 2026 results (in August 2025), posting a net loss per share that missed analyst estimates. While revenue beat estimates and was up year-over-year, the reported loss led to a significant drop in the stock price, reflecting investor concern over profitability.

• International Sales Decline Warning: Following the Q1 2026 results, the company warned that it expects global cannabis revenue to decline quarter-over-quarter due to anticipated "temporary declines" in its international markets. This is expected to offset growing medical cannabis sales in Canada.

• Investment in German Manufacturing Facility: In September 2025, Aurora announced an investment into its German manufacturing facility to boost production capabilities. This highlights the company's commitment to its international expansion and the global medical cannabis market.

• Launch of Physician Experience Platform (PEP) in English: In September 2025, Aurora and Copeia launched the English version of their Physician Experience Platform (PEP). This move is designed to expand access to peer-reviewed medical cannabis case studies, supporting the company's strong focus on the medical segment.

Expert Recommendations and Forecast

Analyst sentiment is cautiously optimistic, with a balanced mix of "Buy" and "Hold" recommendations. The average brokerage recommendation (ABR) is around 2.33 on a scale of 1 (Strong Buy) to 5 (Strong Sell).

• Expert Recommendations: The consensus suggests a mixed to slightly bullish outlook, with several analysts maintaining a "Buy" or "Outperform" rating, while others are on "Neutral." The absence of "Sell" ratings from some firms underscores a cautious optimism.

• Expert Price Targets (12-Month): The average one-year price target is approximately $6.31 USD or $5.86 USD, representing a significant potential upside from recent trading levels. Forecasts range from a low of about $4.36 USD to a high of up to $8.73 USD.

Earnings and Outlook

• Next Earnings Date: Aurora Cannabis is currently estimated to report its next quarterly earnings on or around November 5, 2025 (for the second quarter of fiscal 2026).

• Outlook: Management continues to focus on its "medical-first" strategy, leveraging its global regulatory expertise and infrastructure. The company anticipates strong, sustained growth in its Canadian medical cannabis segment. However, the short-term outlook is tempered by expectations of a sequential revenue dip due to "temporary fluctuations" in international markets. Aurora expects to maintain positive adjusted EBITDA, reinforcing its position as one of the few global cannabis players aiming for profitability, but the recent earnings miss and international sales forecast warrant a cautious near-term view.